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Help Center (opens in new tab)

Yes65%
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Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
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Privacy PolicyYour Privacy ChoicesTerms of UseLegalHelp Centerhello@luminamarkets.com

© 2026 Lumina Markets

Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?
Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?
Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?
Finance

Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?

$0 Vol.

Chart

Before Jan 20270%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
BitcoinCryptoCrypto PricesFinance

Outcomes

Y
Yes
$0 Vol.
No
$0 Vol.
N
0%0%
0%100%

Rules

The outcome is decided by the US dollar price of Bitcoin in the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index, published by CF Benchmarks. For each minute, all index values in that minute are collected, the highest 20% and lowest 20% are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged to give a trimmed-mean price. A qualifying crossing happens when that trimmed-mean price moves from one side of the value specified in the market question to the other: for exceed, from at or below it to strictly above it, and for fall below, from at or above it to strictly below it. Where the market question says again, only the first qualifying crossing after listing counts. The outcome is Yes on the first qualifying crossing before January 2027, and it can resolve early at that point; otherwise it is No, determined at 11:59 PM CT on the last day before January 2027 begins, and if the index data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

Market rules (opens in new tab)

About

Bitcoin is a digital asset whose price moves continuously across global exchanges throughout each day. The measure is whether the US dollar price of Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 before January 2027, using a one-minute trimmed average of a real-time index price that drops the highest and lowest fifth of each minute's readings.

Read full Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab)

Related

Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?
Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?
Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?
Finance

Bitcoin to Fall Below $50,000 by January 2027?

$0 Vol.

Chart

Before Jan 20270%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
BitcoinCryptoCrypto PricesFinance

Outcomes

Y
Yes
$0 Vol.
No
$0 Vol.
N
0%0%
0%100%

Rules

The outcome is decided by the US dollar price of Bitcoin in the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index, published by CF Benchmarks. For each minute, all index values in that minute are collected, the highest 20% and lowest 20% are removed, and the remaining 60% are averaged to give a trimmed-mean price. A qualifying crossing happens when that trimmed-mean price moves from one side of the value specified in the market question to the other: for exceed, from at or below it to strictly above it, and for fall below, from at or above it to strictly below it. Where the market question says again, only the first qualifying crossing after listing counts. The outcome is Yes on the first qualifying crossing before January 2027, and it can resolve early at that point; otherwise it is No, determined at 11:59 PM CT on the last day before January 2027 begins, and if the index data is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

Market rules (opens in new tab)

About

Bitcoin is a digital asset whose price moves continuously across global exchanges throughout each day. The measure is whether the US dollar price of Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 before January 2027, using a one-minute trimmed average of a real-time index price that drops the highest and lowest fifth of each minute's readings.

Read full Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab)

Related