The outcome is decided by the World Total yield for wheat, in metric tons per hectare, reported by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service in its World Agricultural Production report and the Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) Online database, for the 2030 marketing year. 2030 is the second year of the marketing year, while PSD labels a marketing year by its first year, so a 2026 market uses the PSD 2025 marketing year. The outcome is Yes if the rounded yield as shown in PSD Online is strictly greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value used is the one in the first monthly report and PSD update released after that crop's marketing year ends, early resolution does not apply, and if the report is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.

The outcome is decided by the World Total yield for wheat, in metric tons per hectare, reported by the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service in its World Agricultural Production report and the Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD) Online database, for the 2030 marketing year. 2030 is the second year of the marketing year, while PSD labels a marketing year by its first year, so a 2026 market uses the PSD 2025 marketing year. The outcome is Yes if the rounded yield as shown in PSD Online is strictly greater than the value specified in the market question and No otherwise. The value used is the one in the first monthly report and PSD update released after that crop's marketing year ends, early resolution does not apply, and if the report is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.