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Help Center (opens in new tab)

Yes65%
No35%
Aug 31Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
Privacy PolicyYour Privacy ChoicesTerms of UseLegalHelp Centerhello@luminamarkets.com

© 2026 Lumina Markets

Montana 1st District House Winner?
Montana 1st District House Winner?
Montana 1st District House Winner?
Politics•USA

Montana 1st District House Winner?

$100 Vol.

Chart

GOP Primary Winner65%
Aaron Flint64%
Sam Forstag29%
Ryan Busse21%
Aug 31Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
PoliticsUsUs General ElectionUs House ElectionsMontana PoliticsMontana House Elections

Outcomes

GOP Primary Winner
3%65%
Aaron Flint$100 Vol.
2%64%
Sam Forstag
0%29%
Ryan Busse
10%21%

Rules

Resolution follows the results published by the election authority of the state holding the contest, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under that state's election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organisations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No.

Market rules (opens in new tab)

About

The general election for Montana 1st District decides who will represent that district in the U.S. House of Representatives for the two-year term that begins January 3, 2027. Voters choose among the parties' nominees and any other candidates who qualify for the ballot, and the winner is whoever prevails under that state's election law.

Read full Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab)

Related

Montana 1st District House Winner?
Montana 1st District House Winner?
Montana 1st District House Winner?
Politics•USA

Montana 1st District House Winner?

$100 Vol.

Chart

GOP Primary Winner65%
Aaron Flint64%
Sam Forstag29%
Ryan Busse21%
Aug 31Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
PoliticsUsUs General ElectionUs House ElectionsMontana PoliticsMontana House Elections

Outcomes

GOP Primary Winner
3%65%
Aaron Flint$100 Vol.
2%64%
Sam Forstag
0%29%
Ryan Busse
10%21%

Rules

Resolution follows the results published by the election authority of the state holding the contest, and the winner is whoever is officially declared to have prevailed under that state's election law. Where a contest goes to a runoff, only the runoff winner resolves Yes - advancing to one does not. What happens if a candidate stops running depends on what the contract references: a contract on a political party follows that party's official nominee and transfers automatically to a replacement if the nominee withdraws, is disqualified, or stops seeking the office, while a contract on a named individual or on a party's primary winner resolves No in those circumstances. Settlement may occur before certification once major news organisations have consistently called the race, or once all votes are reported and the margin sits outside the statutory recount threshold, in each case only where no recount or legal challenge is outstanding. If the election is cancelled, replaced by a different process, or materially changed so the outcome cannot be determined, the contract resolves No.

Market rules (opens in new tab)

About

The general election for Montana 1st District decides who will represent that district in the U.S. House of Representatives for the two-year term that begins January 3, 2027. Voters choose among the parties' nominees and any other candidates who qualify for the ballot, and the winner is whoever prevails under that state's election law.

Read full Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab)

Related