Yes65%
No35%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
Chart
>-5%85%
>-4%82%
>-3%79%
>-2%75%
Aug 31Sep 8Sep 15Sep 23Sep 30
100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
>-5%
0%85%
>-4%
0%82%
>-3%
0%79%
>-2%
0%75%
>-1%
0%70%
>0%
0%65%
>1%
0%58%
>2%
0%51%
>3%
0%42%
>4%
0%34%
>5%
0%26%
Above 6.0%
0%0%
Rules
The outcome is decided by the percent change in personal income for Texas for Q4 2026, as published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in its State Personal Income release, in Table SQINC1, Quarterly Personal Income by State, Percent Change at Annual Rates From Preceding Period. The outcome is Yes if that percent change is above the value specified in the market question and No otherwise, and early resolution does not apply. The outcome is determined from the value in the release when the BEA publishes it, typically at 7:30 AM CT on the last Friday of the third month after the quarter ends, and if the release is delayed, resolution waits until it is published.
About
Personal income is the income people receive from all sources, including wages, business earnings, investments, and government benefits. The measure is the percent change in personal income in Texas from the preceding quarter, expressed at an annual rate.